10/19/04 Poll: Bush Lead Over Kerry WidensTuesday, October 19, 2004
By Dana Blanton

NEW YORK — Two weeks before Election Day, President George W. Bush (search) leads Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry (search) in the race for the White House, according to a FOX News poll released Tuesday. In the days following the final presidential debate, Bush has not only continued to solidify his position with independent voters, but he is also holding his ground with women voters — a traditional Democratic voting group that Kerry needs in his column.

Today Bush has a five-point lead, receiving 48 percent to Kerry's 43 percent among likely voters. When independent candidate Ralph Nader (search) is included he receives 2 percent, Bush 49 percent and Kerry 42 percent. Two weeks ago Bush had a two-point lead over Kerry in the three-way race, and a three-point lead in the head-to-head matchup.

Men are more likely to support Bush over Kerry (51 percent to 41 percent), and women also give a slight edge to the president (47 percent to 45 percent). Married women, a voting group many are watching this year, give their support to Bush (49 percent to 43 percent), while single women support Kerry (49 percent to 41 percent).

By a margin of 52 percent to 34 percent, self-identified independent voters today are backing Bush. This is up from an 11-point advantage the president had among this group two weeks ago.

Opinion Dynamics Corporation (search) conducted the national poll of 1,000 likely voters for FOX News on October 17-18. "Likely voters" are defined as respondents who are considered more likely to vote in the November presidential election.

Are voters backing their candidate because they like him or because they dislike the other candidate? Almost all Bush supporters (81 percent) describe their vote as being "for Bush," with only 15 percent saying their vote is "against Kerry."

Supporters of the Democratic challenger are more divided, as 56 percent say their vote is "for Kerry" and 37 percent say "against Bush." Positive feelings among Kerry voters have increased significantly since early September when a large minority (41 percent) described their vote as "for Kerry" and a 51 percent majority said "against Bush."

Both Bush and Kerry voters ardently support their chosen candidate. The widespread feeling among each candidate's backers is that they would be disappointed if their guy loses. Seventy percent of Bush voters and 72 percent of Kerry voters say they would be "very disappointed" if their candidate loses the election.

Bush is viewed favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent, down slightly from earlier this month when his rating was 52 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. Kerry's ratings are similar, although they have inched upward since early October. Today 48 percent have a favorable view of the senator (up from 46 percent) and 43 percent unfavorable (down from 44 percent).

"While the president holds a lead, the race is far from over," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "One odd factor is that much of the lead is concentrated in the so-called 'red states,' which were pretty much conceded to Bush at the beginning. Thus his national lead does not reflect a big lead in the battleground states that will decide the election. We may well be facing a situation, as we did in 2000, where the popular vote and the electoral vote produce different results."

Better Job on the Issues

The president's overall job approval rating is down a few ticks this week: 49 percent approve and 44 percent disapprove. Two weeks ago President Bush had a 53 percent approval rating, which was his highest in seven months. While the president receives remarkably high approval from Republicans (92 percent), a high number of Democrats disapprove (85 percent), with independents more divided (49 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove).

When the candidates are rated on the top issues, Bush soundly beats Kerry on handling the war on terrorism and also has the clear edge on handling the situation in Iraq. Kerry is seen as the candidate who would do a better job on health care and the economy. While Kerry still has the advantage on these domestic issues, Bush has improved his standing in these areas.

Would do a better job on . . .

Oct 17-18Oct 3-4EconomyKerry +3 Kerry + 6 Health careKerry +9 Kerry +16 IraqBush+9 Bush + 8 TerrorismBush +15 Bush +12

During the final debate the candidates were asked a question about homosexuality, and in Kerry's response he mentioned Vice President Dick Cheney's lesbian daughter. A quarter of voters think the comment was appropriate and about two-thirds (64 percent) think Kerry's reference to Cheney's daughter was inappropriate, including 87 percent of Republicans, 40 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of independents.

More voters are confident in Bush than Kerry to provide the country with moral leadership. A 62 percent majority is confident, including 44 percent "very confident," Bush would provide moral leadership. In contrast, a 54 percent majority is confident Kerry would provide moral leadership if he were elected, including 30 percent saying "very confident."

Six in 10 voters are confident that Kerry would "look after the interests of Americans like you" compared to 58 percent who believe Bush would.

ConfidentVery Somewhat Provide moral leadership Bush44% 18 Kerry30% 24 Look after your interests Bush37% 21 Kerry34% 26 Leadership abilities Bush40% 18 Kerry31% 24 Keep campaign promises Bush30% 24 Kerry21% 29 Honest & open with public Bush35% 21 Kerry29% 28

Majorities of voters are either very or somewhat confident in the leadership abilities of Bush (58 percent) and Kerry (55 percent), however by nine percentage points more voters are "very" confident in Bush's leadership.

Similarly, about half express confidence that each candidate will keep his campaign promises, with more voters being "very" confident in Bush doing so.

One promise Kerry has made is on taxes. The Democratic candidate has said, if elected, he would give additional tax breaks to most Americans and increase taxes only on those making more than $200,000 a year. Do voters believe him? Forty-five percent believe if Kerry becomes president their family would pay higher taxes, 12 percent say lower taxes and 34 percent think their taxes would stay the same.

War on Terrorism and Iraq

A sizeable majority (69 percent) views the "war on terrorism" as a real war, while about one in four think of it more as a figure of speech like the "war on drugs." Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to view it as a real war (87 percent and 56 percent respectively).

By a margin of 61 percent to 25 percent voters think Bush would more aggressively fight the war on terrorism than think Kerry would, and two-thirds say they would be concerned to change presidents given the unrest in the world at this time.

Opinion is sharply divided on what is more important in Iraq — 46 percent think it is more important to win the Iraq war and 46 percent say it is more important to end it. Most of those that want to win the war are Bush supporters and almost two-thirds of those wanting to "end it" are Kerry supporters.

War in Iraq: Which is more important — to win it or end it?

Overall ResponseHow they Plan to Vote for President 46 percent say “Win It”Of those, 72 percent support Bush;
21 percent Kerry 46 percent say “End It”Of those, 64 percent support Kerry;
23 percent Bush

Election Results on Nov. 2?

Given the experience of 2000, many voters think it is unlikely this year's presidential election results will be known the night of the election. A third think the outcome will be known the next day, 14 percent think it will take several days, 14 percent a week or longer, leaving just under a third (32 percent) saying we will know the winner that night.

In a hypothetical $100 bet on the outcome of the presidential election, a 48-percent plurality of voters would put their money on Bush to win and 31 percent on Kerry.

If (when) Bush wins, the Democrats already plan on contesting it in court, regardless of the winning margin. They have their attorneys in place and have a handbook that was leaked to the press last week how to charge voter fraud and intimidation even when there is no evidence of any.

The Democratic Party used to be a great party...not anymore. It's become a wholly owned subsidiary of the trial lawyers and unions. It's leadership is taking the party over a cliff and the lemmings are willingly going.

Bush and the Republicans are not perfect by any means, but at least they have the general best interests of the country at heart...the Democrats are only interested in power for its own sake.

blind and manipulated lemmings.But by the polls indication,hopefully people are beginning to see Kerry, and Moore for that matter,for who they really are

|UPDATED|10/20/2004 1:22:39 PM (AZT)|/UPDATED|

we could talk about how Bush stole the 2000 election and how he plans on stealing it again this time around?


http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/gorewonx.html


Tom

tommyb said: we could talk about how Bush stole the 2000 election and how he plans on stealing it again this time around? http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/gorewonx.html Tom

That is an awfully naive & ill-informed statement to even say.You know he won,& you know that in the end electoral votes are the ones that count.The sore loser Gore is the one that kept demading recounts,and wanting to rewrite the voting laws.And what do the Democrats do this time? They put out their little handbook for all their "attorneys" with instructions on how to pressure voters at the polls,& how to stir up trouble,and it was supposed to be kept secret.

|UPDATED|10/20/2004 9:44:26 PM (AZT)|/UPDATED|

Let's not let a projected lead make us complacent.
This is going to be another close race.
Voter turnout is expected to be high, especially the youth vote.
Let's make sure we get everyone out to vote on Nov. 2.
Make sure no one says "Bush has got it made, they don't need my vote."
Every vote counts!
Every vote is needed.

Bush stole what ? If half the people that voted down here could understand who they were voting for, there would be no argument. I am not a Clinton fan, but I would vote for Hillary before that guy that thinks he is a Kennedy. Now his wife said that Laura Bush don't know what a real job is, and if you remember Kerry at one of the debates, he looks around the room, and says, "Now looking around this room, I don't think any of you make the kind of money that George Bush and I make". Talk about eliteism. This is the same guy that jumps ahead of people in line at the Ben and Jerry's ice cream shop in Mass. I would like to know why he would take a movie camera to Vietnam to have movies made of himself? Trying to emulate PT-109?

I'm not big on political debates, but I forund this interesting.......


---------------------- Forwarded by Andrew Warker/CCA on 10/20/2004
11:28 AM ---------------------------


John Crowley
10/20/2004 11:33 AM

To: Mike Stewart/CCA@CCA, Andrew Warker/CCA@CCA, jebrauns@erols.com
cc:
Subject: Flu Vaccine

Take the time to read this . . . it's very interesting.


How Flu Vaccine works:
Influenza vaccine is produced by growing the virus in eggs. The virus is killed and processed to create the vaccine, which is given by injection under the skin. The body then produces antibodies to the virus over the
next two to four weeks. If the immunized person then comes into contact with the influenza virus, the antibodies attack and kill the virus before it has a chance to cause infection. The vaccine contains the 3
most likely strains to be active during the "flu season"

Why the shortage:
Almost half of the nation's flu vaccine will not be delivered this year. Chiron, a major manufacturer of flu vaccine, will not be distributing any influenza vac! cine this flu season. Chiron was to make 46-48 million doses vaccine for the United States. Chiron is a British
company. Recently British health officials stopped Chiron from distributing and making the vaccine when inspectors found unsanitary conditions in the labs. Some lots of the vaccine were recalled and destroyed.

Why is our vaccine made in the UK and not the US?
The major pharmaceutical companies in the US provided almost 90% of the nations flu vaccine at one time. They did this despite a very low profit margin for the product. Basically, they were doing us a favor. In the
late 80's a man from North Carolina who had received the vaccine got the flu. The strain he caught was one of the strains in that years vaccine made by a US company. What did he do? He sued and he won. He was awarded almost $5 million! After that case was appealed and lost, most US
pharmaceutical companies stopped making the vaccine. The liability out weighed the profit margin. Since UK and Canadian laws prohibit such frivolous law suits UK and Canadian companies began selling the vaccine in the US.

By the way...the lawyer that represented the man in the flu shot law suit was a young ambulance chaser by the name of John Edwards.

So one of the guys spouting legal reform is actually part of the problem to start with? How surprising!

http://www.jibjab.com/